2-2. Half right, half wrong. Not what I was going for. Houston and Baltimore seemed like easy picks to me, and they turned out the way I expected. I took a flyer on Minnesota +8.5, not expecting the line to move to +10.5 because of a rookie QB throwing his first pass of the season in the the playoffs, only to miss by 20 feet. Whatever, them’s the breaks. The Washington game stunned be a bit, especially after being up 17 (+3 with a 14 point lead) through the first qtr. Great game, bad injury… to my wallet.
My Divisional picks through the years haven’t been as good as my Wild Card, so tread with caution. I’m saying that to myself.. listen Dov. Excuse me. Listen dum dum. You don’t pick this round very well.
DENVER -10 over baltimore
green bay 3 over SAN FRANCISCO
ATLANTA (-2.5 I’m a fool) over seattle
NEW ENGLAND (-9.5 bet the farm, or a bar of gold) over houston
I don’t have any words for it, so I’ll use a sound…meh. Meh is all I have to describe my results for the 2012 NFL season. I’m still on the uptick since an abysmal 2008 (45%) but still nowhere near my early success of 57% in 2007.
A brief history: I’ve picked every NFL game ATS (against the spread) since 2007 with lines posted on Wednesday afternoon. Below are the year Win-Loss and overall percentage. ~53% keeps you ahead of the vig, so I’m still not where I want to be but at least I’m stabilizing.
2012: 133-123 = 52%
2011: 130-126 = 51%
2010: 128-128 = 50%
2009: 120-136 = 47%
2008: 115-141 = 45%
2007: 140-105-11 = 57%
Now we come to Wild Card weekend, the one round of the playoffs where I’ve had tremendous success over the same time period (2007 - 2011) with a 65% win rate.
Rather than go in to my thought process on each game, I’m just going to post my picks. They’re based half on historical data and half of gut feeling. Take each with a grain of salt. Unless I’m right. Then the right ones should have been treated as gospel.
HOUSTON -4.5 over cincinnati
minnesota +8.5 over GREEN BAY
BALTIMORE -7 over indianapolis
WASHINGTON +3 over seattle
As Hurricane Irene hauls her media hyped false-apocalyptic self out of existence and this weekend of being trapped indoors draws to a close, what better time is there to make my predictions for the upcoming NY Jets 2011 season. It’s simple… Since 2009, I look at the 17 game schedule and predict which games they’ll win, which they’ll lose and eventually what their overall record will be.
In 2009 I predicted they would go 10-6 and they finished 9-7? In terms of the record, yeah, pretty close. However, when looking at the individual games I went 5-11. Not so hot.
2010 was a different story. Last year I picked them to go 11-5 and they did just that. My personal record? 14-2, missing only the Week 5 Minnesota Monday night game and the Week 16 game at Chicago.
I somehow doubt I can go 14-2 again, but I’m sure as hell going to try.
My 2011 New York Jets picks by game. 10-6. (made on 8/28/11)
J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!!!
With what I am considering to be the final nail in the coffin that holds the 2009 New York Mets (that being an unassisted triple play to end a game,) I am now washing my hands of that mess and moving on to what will hopefully be greener (‘gang’, yeah, I’m a riot) pastures.
I’m not sure why I’ve never done this before, but I’m going to take a stab at what I think their record will be at the end of the 2009 regular season, along with where I believe the wins and losses will come from.
Monday, January 4th should be comical.
Week 1 @ Houston - L (0-1)
Week 2 New England - L (0-2)
Week 3 Tennessee - W (1-2)
Week 4 @ New Orleans - W (2-2)
Week 5 @ Miami - W (3-2)
Week 6 Buffalo - W (4-2)
Week 7 @ Oakland - W (5-2)
Week 8 Miami - W (6-2)
Week 9 BYE
Week 10 Jacksonville - W (7-2)
Week 11 @ New England - L (7-3)
Week 12 Carolina - L (7-4)
Week 13 @ Buffalo - L (7-5)
Week 14 @ Tampa Bay - W (8-5)
Week 15 Atlanta - W (9-5)
Week 16 @ Indianapolis - L (9-6)
Week 17 Cincinnati - W (10-6)
Overall record of 10-6 with a divisional record of 3-3. Hopefully thats good enough for a Wild Card.
I repeat, January 4th should be an absolute hoot.